Bounce Scenarios

1. BigSize but No Front Running :

on this scenario it looks like there is some serious size

on the layside an ready to buy.ie this pictuer looks strong

but remember the prints are more important then just size on resiting orders...

if u see such size right @ reistance , but we dont see anyone jumping infront of them (at least with significant size) then there is something foul, or simply put

the market isnt ready to move up or thru this level.. no one is following the market up any further ie, no buying.. so be rather sure that price will bounce

as the saing goes no demand leads to supply

and be quick! as if that big size is one guy, it may get pulled fast and that will result mostlikely in drastic drop in price.

so in this case the order @3,65 got pulled and immediately

we see 200 at the backside.so there is supply vs. no demand

therfore u should position ursfelf for a bounce..

Scenario 2 : Supply Swamping Demand

in this scenario , we see that a big number prints @ 3.70 on the layside.

so a good sign of demand and buying but look @ the backside and how it reacts to such a buying instead of a decrease or a removing of the order ,its still standing with 600.. so there is more size on the backside and its getting ready to swamp demand at this stage and level

a bounce would be more likely, as if the layers and backers fight both with good and big size.. but one is clearly stronger u dont want to be on the weaker one .. right ?

and it gets clear on the next pic, as we see an increase on the backside

where we have previously traded ie. bought, wich is a good sign ,

as imaging u see big hits on one side but instead of the amount decraesing it even increases! now that tells us that there is more supply then anything else..

we even see a big number print on the backside @ 3,65 this just addsto the allreday told story .. that A supply is swamping demand and selling pressure increases..

therefore bounce should be anticiptaed and played

Scenario 3: No Demand

when u notice that price trades torwards our level on low volume and we have a lack of follow thru , then we can speak of no demand and no demand at a key level in this case resistance is deadly..

we see weak prints and low amounts on the layside

on the other hand we see size on the backside..no chance for price to break that level.. with such weak actions and no size to support any move up..

and no size to sustain at this level

Scenario 4: Effort vs Result

on this scenario u can see that when huge effort is taken in action

but the level still holds, then it rather bounces then breaks..

as in somecase demand will loose its firepower and the resting supplywall will still hold and therfore outnumber demand

we see a big print @ 3,70 but we still stand with 600

(ice berg) order ... a sign that there is more size then u first whitnessed

another big print of 400 , but we still stand back with 550

it just decreas a lil.. but it witholds the attacks. that level will mostlikely hold

an after a some big attacks we even increase in size at backside..

thats a sign that u rather should think about that the level will hold and u should play a bounce

Remember! nothing is Black and White! and these are just some of manny scenarios out there

but now u know what and how too look at the markets and tades that take place.. etc..

stay Tuned for more to come ;)

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Breakout Scenarios

Here is the follow up on Breakouts

Scenario 1 : Eating Thru Resitance

when u notice that a good sized order on the backside gets hit frequently with good size

and it gets eaetn up without or just marginal new money coming in @ backside ..

then u consider to join the piranhas and put in a laybet @ 3,70 .. sometims it goes so fast that u will miss the train.. but hey.. it doesent mather the markets will be therfore evere and the next setup is just arround the corner ;)

so we see 50 print @3,70 wich we say is an average price.. /is always relative to the current market) we see that the backside doesent get a refill.. we stand with 350

we see 100 print a good size and the backside does nothing we stay with

250 @3,70 and we notice that the lay queue increased in size at this moment

we could put in a lay bet @3,70

again we see a nice sized print @3,70 150 get matched and we only stand with 100 left

ie. there is no new supply coming in @this level.. no supply against an increase in demand..

this level has to break ! ;)

and bam the remaining 100 have been trading and we break thru the resistance level..

Scenario 2 : Absorbtion (Compressed Bounce)

we can also see a bounce off that resistance level @ 3,70 we then have to judge the bounce, is it supply that overcomes demand? , does supply gets absorbed ? ie do we hold gains ?even if supply is coming in.. ?

on this battle something like this can happen

lets say we bounce off 2 ticks , but now focus on the money on the backside its not that big noir strong..

and we have no follow thru..

next we trade back up to resistance.. we even test resistance with a print @3,70 of 50

and please look at the good size on the layside.. compared to previous size on backside

now we bounce off again but this time only 1 tick lower

and again the backside size is small but layside even increased again.

and eventually we trade back to 3.70 with big prints and an increase of size on the backside..

time to think about a lay bet.. and a breakout to follow

so whats happened here is that the remaining supply at this level.dried out and got absorbed by the demand wich on the same time increased..

this u will notice on how far we bounce back and if we move back up we should bounce off

each time one tick or two lower then before..

aswell as demand should have signs of strenght ,while the selling pressure should be weak

and should get weaker the more we test the resistance level... this may go on for awhile..

but its a good scenario as u could get in a lil lower then @ resistance..

Scenario 3: Holding Gains

here is a scenario wich on first sight looks like supply is overcoming demand at resistance

but only on first sight! ;) as u also need to focus on whats happening to the layside when big prints hit the market..

as if u dont see it on first sight its doesent mean that there is no size (ice berg)

we see an increase @ resistance 3,70 of 1500 wich is big , we also notice

a print of 200 @3,65 but we still stand lay with 250 , so there is probably

more money on th layside then first excpected..

another big print of 500 and we lost some money on the laside but we still stand with 100

(u can often see that some money gets temporarely eatne but then we have a refill pretty fast a sec. later)

there u go we have a refill and stand 300 @3,65 .. so even thou we have big prints hitting the layside.. we are holding gains .. this is a n indication that there is size on the layside and a sign of strenght as the layside is able to absorb the bomabardement of the backers

another big number hits the market as we print 700 and we still stand with 300 @3,65 ..so this is the last confirmatinn we need.. and we would get ready to lay.. as soon as we see prints of good frequence and size on 3,70

no the attack starts and we see a big print of 500 @ 3,70 while the size at lay increases and the backside looses size .. this could be the start of a frantic and fast eating thur the 1000 @3,70 wich would unfold in a simillar way then scenario 1 we spoke about...

so whats happening here is that there is more size on the layside.. wich isnt revealed and the heavy selling pressure gets absorbed.. wich results in an inbalance in favour of demand.. so if there is size that can keep up with supply and whithstands its attacks.. till the supply dries out and demand increases at the same time.. there is only one way price will go.. and that is up !

Scenario 4: The Lure

another scenario would be . if u see lay orders get pulled to lure in backers .. ie to make the marketlook weak at resistance.. wich is a part of an article i work on in the future,, about spoofing and games played on the ladder .. there is alot to tell... ;)

so let say someone pulled the 250 from 3,65

and u see that someone jumps in on the backside with 100

and as soon as this happens it gets hit and u see another nice size on the layside

the 200 get pulled again.. and now a backer moves its order from resistance 3,70 to 3,65

and yet again as soon as this happens someone takes the 300 @3,70 and we stand again with a good size on the layside..

if u see that money gets pulled and as soon as a backer got lured in.. and that back money gets matched with size.. all the time ..

this is a signs that someone with good money and prob bigger pockets want to buy there

and therfore u should to ;)

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